Talk about a choke job. Tom Brady, Mr. Clutch, Mr. Postseason, Mr. Best quarterback when the game is on the line fell short Sunday against the Jets in the AFC Divisional Playoffs. Brady lost his third straight playoff game, his second straight at home, and all three losses came against one underdog. If this were you know who, this game would be just another example of your inability to get through the big moments. But since this is Tom Brady, what do we hear? Belichick was outmatched. The Patriots catchers were covered. Anything to absolve Brady of blame for Sunday’s loss.
What I can tell you about yesterday’s game is that Tom Brady looked like the reincarnation of Jim (or Chris) Everett. Twice I saw Brady crouch down, feeling the pressure of the pass when no one was around him. Another time, he glanced behind him as he shuffled his pocket in the middle of the play to see if he was about to take a hit. Throughout the game, he overreacted to pressure, like a rookie playing for the first time.
What made Tom Brady and the Patriots so good all season? His short passing game. Wes Welker in the slot, Danny Woodhead out of the backfield, Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski in midfield, Deion Branch out. What did all these receivers have in common? Everyone caught the ball near the line of scrimmage. Tom Brady was in surgery all season, disarming defenses with short passes on a regular basis. On Sunday, however, he did not take what they were giving him. He held onto the ball, looking for the big play too many times. He played a different game than he played for most of 2010. Is it safe to say the moment got too big for him? No, not Tom Brady.
The Patriots’ long run of more than 7 minutes in the fourth quarter, down 10 points, was a defining moment in this game. Not only did the long drive eat up half the quarter, it yielded no points. Why? I’m glad you asked. At the second and 10 from the Jets’ 31-yard line, the Patriots were in field goal range. Tom Brady stepped back to pass, moved in his pocket to avoid pressure, and had Wes Welker face him about 10-15 yards away in midfield. However, Tom Brady did not release it. He could easily have and should have. He had the time. Instead, he was shy and grabbed a sack.
The next play was third and 13 at 34. The Patriots were now out of comfortable shooting range. A 51 yarder at Foxborough is no easy task. The Pats needed to make up the yards Brady had lost to get back to field goal range. They lined up in a cluster formation to the right. Two receivers traveled vertical routes, almost like picks for Wes Welker, the third wide receiver in the group. Welker ran to the floor, wide open. This is where Brady was looking. This is where the work was designed. But Brady didn’t release it. He held onto the ball, looking for a bigger play. He danced in the pocket for what seemed like 30 minutes before firing another incomplete pass. The Jets were giving the Pats half of the 13 yards needed for the first down on this play, but Brady didn’t take it, leaving his team in bad shape.
At this point, it was fourth down and 13 at 34. The Pats could go for the 51-yard field goal or try to convert a fourth and 13. It’s not an ideal situation with your season at stake. They decided to go for it. Deion Branch ran an isolation route against Antonio Cromartie and won. Brady saw Branch and pulled the trigger. The season was at stake. This was the kind of moment Tom “Clutch” has always been through … Only not this time. Brady threw an errant pass, a terrible pass, to a wide receiver. It was incomplete. A declining business volume. Five minutes later, the game was over and so was the season for New England.
Yes, the Jets had a good game plan on defense. They used a passive approach with many hybrid man / zone hedges. But Brady still had wide receivers throughout the game. So what happened then? Is it fair to say that Brady failed the clutch? You might be thinking I’m exaggerating a bit, trying to rub it off on all those New England fans who thought a fourth Lombardi Trophy was a foregone conclusion. But let’s give serious thought to this argument. Is Tom Brady really the clutch quarterback he pretends to be, or has he just always been given a free pass for poor clutch performances due to his 3 Super Bowl rings? Rings he won early in his career when he played for the league’s best team annually. Let’s look at some numbers.
Brady’s career numbers in the regular season: 63.6 completion percentage, 7.4 yards per pass attempt, 95.2 QB rating. Brady’s career playoff numbers: 62.2 completion percentage, 6.5 passing yards, 85.7 QB rating. (Just to let you know, Peyton Manning in his playoff career has a 63.1 completion percentage, 7.51 yards per attempt, and an 88.4 rating.)
In Brady’s last 9 postseason games, the Patriots are 4-5. He has thrown 16 TD’s, 13 INT’s and has a QB rating of 80.6. By contrast, Matt Hasselbeck during that same span of time has led the Seahawks to a 5-4 playoff record, with 16 TDs, 7 INTs and a rating of 85.6. I suppose Brady stopped practicing the clutch since 2004. Or at least he practiced it less than Hasselbeck.
In Tom Brady’s regular season career with the game on the line (4th quarter and score within 7 points) he has a QB rating of 82.6, well below his overall regular season rating of 95.2 (Side note : Peyton Manning has a career rating of 91.3 in the fourth quarter with the game within 7 points. He also has thirty-six wins in the fourth quarter compared to Brady, who is 20).
If you mean that Tom Brady is the most decisive, or the best quarterback of all time, or even that he is better than Peyton Manning, the win-loss argument is the best way to do it. But that to me is just ridiculous. The Quarterback might be the most impactful individual position in football. But it is no more impactful than an entire offensive or defensive unit. The games are not just about who has the best quarterback. Is there a correlation? Sometimes. But there is no direct line of causation here. The TEAM that plays the best wins 99% of the time.
If it really were true that wins and losses determine which quarterbacks are better than others, then I’d have to say that Tom Brady from 2001 to 2004 was a better quarterback than Tom Brady from 2005 to 2010. Think about it, he won 3 Super Bowls. in 4 years from ’01 to ’04 instead of none in his last 6 seasons. But clearly, it’s stupid to believe it. Brady is certainly a better quarterback now than he was at the beginning of his career.
So what does all this say, other than that the media is full of it and creating false narratives in order to come up with a better story? He says that soccer is the best team game. He says that the notion of “clutch” is greatly exaggerated. And he says that despite all the arguments I just made against him, Tom Brady is still one of the top 5 quarterbacks of all time. It might even be the second best of all time. But who is number one? Rex Ryan knows the answer.
